But here’s the thing: A few years from now, there’s a good chance we’ll look back at even a number like $100 million and wonder how the Rays secured the rights to their franchise player for so long and so cheap. Baseball’s revenue streams are exploding, with the new national TV contract funneling an additional $25 million a year into each team’s coffers starting in 2014. Local TV deals offer even more potential for riches. Guggenheim Partners bought the Dodgers in the spring for $2.15 billion, started flexing their financial muscle in earnest a few months later, and if the latest reports are accurate, might be on their way to a 25-year deal with Fox worth as much as $7 billion.
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The Rays have been out in front on many trends over the past half-decade, from loading the roster with undervalued defensive wizards to tacking on club options to every deal possible, even for relief pitchers approaching their 40s.
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The going rate for a win on the open market now lies somewhere between $5 million and $6 million, depending on how this hot stove season shakes out. Given the combination of typical 5 percent per year salary inflation and the media revenue forces to come, it may very well cost close to $10 million by the time Longoria’s new contract expires in a decade. So even if you’re skeptical of a player who’s never posted a .900 OPS (Tropicana Field significantly suppresses offense, but still), derives much of his value from defense (good luck getting one publicly available measure of defense everyone can agree on), and has legitimate injury concerns, Longoria doesn’t need to perform like a superstar in the later years of the deal for the Rays to get good value on their investment. If he stays near his current level for the next few years, then ages into a merely average player by the time the next decade rolls around, that would be more than enough.
With all of that said …
… Valentine’s at fault here, too. The tussle with Youkilis; zinging Middlebrooks with a, “Nice inning, kid,” after the rookie third baseman botched a play; confusing a right-handed pitcher for a lefty, filling out the wrong lineup as a result … these are real problems, both personal and tactical, for which Valentine should bear some or all of the blame. (There have been other instances where Valentine’s been ripped for bad decision-making; many of those complaints are justified, though you’d be hard-pressed to find a manager who doesn’t make his share of bone-headed mistakes.) There have been plenty of studies that chronicle the importance of a positive work environment and a supportive boss, and the difficulties that can crop up when that work environment turns sour. If the clubhouse tenor is as bad as Passan makes it out to be, that would certainly qualify as a bad work environment.
Chris Jaffe, the author of the excellent book Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, wrote a comprehensive piece on Valentine’s track record and tactical tendencies, showing that Bobby V’s been an effective manager for much of his career. In particular, he’s had a lot of success getting the most out of previously mediocre players, with everyone from Benny Agbayani to Turk Wendell to … hell, half of this year’s Red Sox roster outperforming their modest expectations.
What the post mostly brushed over was Valentine’s history of conflict at various stops. In some cases, you could chalk it up to scapegoating, like when he took the rap for Mets failures mostly caused by Steve Phillips’s missteps. But Valentine’s media-friendly persona and blunt management style hasn’t always played well either. And whether their complaints are fully justified or not, several 2012 Red Sox apparently haven’t been impressed by their new skipper’s approach.
When Bard talks about how his mechanics undermined his confidence, which further undermined his mechanics, which further undermined his confidence, he sometimes sounds like someone trying to heal himself through magic. Everything he says comes out in the language of someone looking for something that he’s lost, and lost it so thoroughly that he’s not entirely sure what it was anymore, except that it was precious. So much of pitching depends on things that have become so natural that there’s almost something fundamentally metabolic about them. All the systems have to be in subtle harmony, and the less that they are, the more obvious the symptoms of the problem become. He’s not sure what’s wrong with him, except that everything seems to be.
Grantland’s Jonah Keri:
And then there’s Daniel Nava. His pedigree was so modest that he …
• tried out for his college team at Santa Clara as a walk-on
• didn’t make it
• became the equipment manager
• left after two years because he couldn’t afford tuition
• transferred to junior college
• went undrafted
• signed with the Chico Outlaws of the Golden Baseball League
• got cut by the Outlaws after a tryout
• came back a year later
• and finally got signed by the Red Sox on the say-so of assistant director of pro scouting Jared Porter …
• … for $1.
Nava is now the leadoff man for the Sox, hitting .294/.411/.462 and making the league minimum, after J.D. Drew’s $70 million contract expired at the end of last season. The little things always matter. Even when you’re a team as flush as the Red Sox.
Bill Simmons Releases 2,000-Page Book Exploring How Fucking Clever He Is
“I’m extremely proud of this book, which I think I’d really have to call my life’s work—or, at least, the work of my life thus far,” Simmons said at a launch party sponsored by publisher McSweeney’s and hosted by Malcolm Gladwell, who did not manage to find an opportunity to speak …
In his 14-page introduction to Wit, Brilliance, Insight, Simmons, pop culture critic Chuck Klosterman poses the question of whether Simmons is brilliant because of his decision to embrace the entirety of television while writing for people who like to watch sports on television or, indeed, in spite of it.
(Source: The Onion)
After rejecting a one-year offer for $9.5 million, Patriots receiver Wes Welker told reporters that negotiations with the team have “gotten worse.” Apparently, Bill Belichick stepped in and offered Welker a five-year deal worth $60 million, but only on the condition that the receiver change his name to Wes Weenie or Weenie Welker. Welker countered with an offer where he would change his name to Wee Weenie Welkinson if his coach changed his name to Bill Beli-bitch, after which Belichick offered to change his name to Bitchy Bill the Sailor if Welker would accept three years and $28 million and change his name to Dr. Weenis. Welker nearly agreed, but asked for a clause wherein Bitchy Bill the Sailor would always wear a sailor’s cap with a picture of Jay Leno giggling on the front, which Belichick agreed to, provided Dr. Weenis kept two tongue depressors in his mouth permanently so he looked like a human walrus. Welker balked, calling the request “ridiculous,” and the negotiations fell apart.
But what Storage Wars has — and why I keep coming back — is a bona fide superstar: Dave Hester…
If not Barry, then I should root for Brandi, right? Who better than Brandi can show the transformative power of hard-earned money? Hairstylists and plastic surgeons (allegedly) turned a woman who once married a bald schlub like Jarrod Schulz into into an A&E goddess. Who doesn’t like watching Brandi walking around the storage lots? Who hasn’t noticed that she’s storing two Peter Dinklage heads in her bra? Who hasn’t stared into her ferrety eyes and fantasized about a future of digging through tubs of porn and gardening tools? Who hasn’t sent her e-mails and letters asking her about what she plans on doing once her husband drives Now and Then Thrift Store into the ground? Who doesn’t feel a rush of empathy every time her idiot husband buys a locker based on a “gut feeling”? Who doesn’t value her business acumen, her economy, her ability to Google mysterious items and come up with an immediate appraisal? …
All entrepreneurs have to be ruthless. At least Dave Hester admits to it. And if the shoe were on the other foot and Darrell and Brandi were on top of the game, would they show Dave any mercy? How do you root against a guy who will spend an extra $1,000 to keep his brother from getting a locker? How do you root against a guy who copped his own catchphrase and then pulled off the tricky dance to make it stick? Without “Yuuuuuup!” Storage Wars becomes a bunch of overweight, sunburned people scratching at their noses and raising their eyebrows. There’s something to admire about a man who understands how to properly economize his words, who knows the power of the elongated vowel. Take away “Yuuuuuup!” and Storage Wars is severely diminished.
None of this explains why a team with a cash cow of a ballpark like Fenway, a money-minting machine like NESN, and many other lucrative revenue streams would need to trade a perfectly capable starting shortstop for a perfectly capable doorstop.
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And here’s the thing: Boston’s thrifty offseason plan, taken as a whole, might end up making at least a little baseball sense. The Rangers added Yu Darvish to a stacked roster. The Angels got Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The Yankees finally have the pitching depth to match their terrifying lineup. The Rays might have their best offense in franchise history. And the Tigers just signed Prince Fielder. If baseball waits a year to add a second wild-card team, two or more very good teams will be going home early, and Boston may well be one of them. Maybe the answer is for the Sox to grab Oswalt, then stand pat from here, knowing Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and other prizes could await in the next free-agent class.
